Willem II finished the regular season with a 2-1 victory at Dordrecht, a result that the data suggests was built on superior efficiency in the final third and a decisive advantage in the expected goals battle. The Lemeister model had the away side as marginal favourites at 46 per cent, and the actual outcome aligned closely with that projection. Dordrecht matched Willem II in possession at 50 per cent each, but the visitors created the more dangerous opportunities, posting an expected goals figure of 1.78 against the home side's 1.11. Willem II's ability to convert chances was the clear differentiator.
The opening goal arrived two minutes before half-time. T. Verheydt converted a penalty to give Willem II the lead, a moment that reflected their greater territory in the first half. Dordrecht had created little going forward before the break, managing only two shots on target across the full 90 minutes. Willem II, by contrast, registered seven shots on goal from ten total attempts, forcing the Dordrecht goalkeeper into five saves. That volume of testing work on the home defence told the story of the away side's control.
Dordrecht equalised in the 78th minute through N. Venema, with J. van Aken providing the assist. It was a rare moment of precision from the home attack, who had otherwise struggled to break through a Willem II defence that kept them to just two efforts on target. Nick Venema was one of Dordrecht's better performers, earning a match rating of 7.3 from the data, level with teammate Daniel van Vianen. The equaliser gave the home side momentum briefly, but Willem II responded quickly.
Just five minutes later, in the 83rd minute, C. Twigt restored the Willem II lead with a normal goal, assisted by A. Culum. It was a timely intervention that killed off Dordrecht's revival. Calvin Twigt was the standout performer across the pitch, earning the highest match rating of the game at 8.3. His goal and his all-round contribution in midfield underpinned the away victory. Armin Culum, who provided the assist, also rated well at 7.3, underlining the effectiveness of the Willem II central areas.
The disciplinary record told a story of its own. Dordrecht collected four yellow cards, to Nicolás Rossi, Jan Plug, Marouane Afaker and Stéphano Carrillo, while Willem II received two, to Finn Stam and Nathan Tjoe-A-On. The home side committed 14 fouls to Willem II's seven, a sign of the pressure they were under, particularly after falling behind again late in the second half. The away side's pass completion rate of 79 per cent was slightly inferior to Dordrecht's 82 per cent, but they attempted more passes overall, 445 to 431, and used the ball more effectively in attacking areas.
For Willem II, this result completed the regular season on a strong note, confirming the quality that had made them favourites in the Lemeister model. Dordrecht finished the campaign with a home defeat that reflected their struggles to match the division's top sides in decisive moments, particularly in front of goal. The data underlined a clear gap in shot conversion and expected goals, with the visitors taking their chances at the critical moments of the contest.
