Independiente Rivadavia and Tigre shared a 1-1 draw at the Estadio José Dellagiovanna, a result that the Lemeister model had slightly favoured the visitors to win, though the data from the match paints a more complicated picture. The draw was ultimately decided by a late penalty, masking a first half and three-quarters where Independiente Rivadavia’s efficiency in front of goal was the only separation between the sides.
The opening goal arrived in the 71st minute, scored by M. Amarfil for the visitors. It was a normal goal, without a recorded assist, and it came despite the balance of play heavily favouring Tigre. By that stage, Tigre had dominated possession at 62% and had generated 1.13 expected goals to the visitors’ 0.32. That the home side found themselves behind for the majority of the second half was a testament to the compact defending and one moment of opportunism from Independiente Rivadavia.
Tigre’s persistence eventually told in the 90th minute, when B. Martinez converted a penalty to level the scores. It was a reward for the pressure they had applied, though the penalty was not born from a flurry of clear-cut chances. The home side registered two shots on goal all match, the same number of shots on target as the away side (one each, plus Tigre's second from the spot). The expected goals gap, home 1.13, away 0.32, underlines that Tigre’s chances were not vastly superior in quality, even if their territorial dominance was undeniable.
The passing statistics paint a clear picture of that control: Tigre completed 328 of 415 passes at a 79% accuracy rate, while the visitors managed just 165 successful passes from 259 attempts at 64%. The home side also had six corners to the visitors’ seven, but the four offsides called against Independiente Rivadavia suggest a team trying to spring counter-attacks, but being caught out. The discipline of the away side was questionable; they picked up four yellow cards to Tigre’s one, Leonard Costa, Ezequiel Centurión, Matías Fernández, and Sebastián Villa all were cautioned.
Individually, the highest-rated performer on the pitch was Tigre’s Tomás Cardona, who earned an 8.2 from the Lemeister model, likely for his defensive work in marshalling the visiting attack and limiting them to 0.32 expected goals. For the visitors, goalscorer M. Amarfil was not among the highest-rated in the match data, which suggests his contribution was eclipsed by defensive solidity elsewhere. Ezequiel Bonifacio of the visitors posted a 7.3, while Tigre’s Joaquín Laso and Ramón Arias each scored 7.3, and Elías Cabrera a 7.2. The goalkeeper saves column shows zero for Tigre’s keeper and one for the visitors, reflecting the sparse quality of chances created.
The draw leaves both sides with a point from this second-phase match. For Tigre, it feels like two dropped points given their overwhelming share of possession, territory, and passing control in their own stadium. Independiente Rivadavia will take the better part of the result, having been largely on the back foot but nearly escaping with a win. In a competition where every point matters in the 2nd Phase standings, the Lemeister model’s pre-match projection of a 1-0 away win was close to the shape of the match, though not the final outcome.
