AC Guaratinguetá U20 beat Guarani U20 2-1 at Estádio Municipal Professor Dario Rodrigues Leite, a result that defied the pre-match expectation according to the Lemeister model, which had given Guarani a 63 per cent win probability and projected a 3-0 away victory. The match was decided by three first-half and second-half stoppage-time goals, with both sides finishing with ten men after a second-half red card for each team and a further sending-off for the home side in added time.
The opening goal arrived in the 34th minute, when M. Santos put AC Guaratinguetá ahead. The home side held that lead for only eight minutes before Guarani equalised in the 42nd minute, a goal not credited to a specific scorer in the data. The score remained level through the second half despite a turbulent passage in the 53rd minute, when both teams had a player sent off. Just as the match appeared headed for a draw, Pardinho struck in the third minute of stoppage time to give AC Guaratinguetá the win. A third red card, this time for the home side, followed in the 94th minute, but the goal had already secured the points.
The statistical record for this match is minimal, with no shot, possession or passing data available for analysis. The absence of detailed numbers makes it difficult to assess which team dominated the play or created the clearer chances, but the sequence of events suggests a fractured contest. The three red cards , one for each side in the 53rd minute and a late one for the home team , indicate a match that lost its shape in the second half, with discipline a clear issue for both sets of players.
No player match ratings were recorded in the data, so individual performances cannot be assessed beyond the contributions of M. Santos and Pardinho. M. Santos, the only nameable forward for the home side, opened the scoring with what the data classifies as a normal goal, unassisted. Pardinho, also unassisted, delivered the decisive strike in stoppage time. Guarani’s equaliser was similarly unassisted and not attributed to a specific scorer, leaving the away side without a named contributor to their goal.
Neither team made any substitutions, meaning the starting line-ups played the full duration despite two red cards for AC Guaratinguetá and one for Guarani. The home side finished the match with nine players, while Guarani ended with ten. The fact that no substitutes were used may reflect squad limitations in this U20 competition, or injury situations that forced players to complete the match even after the dismissals.
In the context of the Paulista U20 1st Phase , Round 7, this result is a significant boost for AC Guaratinguetá, given their status as heavy underdogs according to the Lemeister model. Guarani, strong pre-match favourites, will be disappointed to have dropped points against a side that played more than half an hour with a numerical disadvantage. For the home team, the character shown to win despite two red cards and a late equaliser suggests resilience, even if the manner of victory was far from controlled. The three points keep them competitive in the group, while Guarani must recover quickly from what was, statistically, a highly unexpected defeat.
