Bahia secured a 1-0 away victory over Paysandu in the third round of the Copa do Brasil, a result that defied the pre-match expectations of the Lemeister model, which had installed Paysandu as the narrow favourite with a 41% win probability. The deciding factor was a first-half penalty converted by Cauly, but the underlying numbers reveal a contest where Bahia's significant dominance of the ball and superior chance creation ultimately told a more one-sided story than the scoreline suggests. The Lemeister model had projected a 2-1 home win, but Bahia's controlled performance rendered that forecast inaccurate on the night.
Cauly opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 43rd minute, his only meaningful contribution in the data, though he was not listed as having created chances or assisted. The goal came after sustained Bahia pressure, with the visitors forcing five saves from the Paysandu goalkeeper across the match. While Paysandu offered plenty of ambition, their efforts were largely speculative and lacked precision. The home side registered 15 total shots but managed only two on target, a poor conversion rate of 13%, which allowed Bahia's goalkeeper a relatively quiet evening with just two saves. Bahia, by contrast, generated 17 shots and placed six on target, forcing five saves from the Paysandu goalkeeper, a conversion rate of 35% that reflected their superior finishing.
The match was defined by Bahia's control of possession and territory, which is the most decisive statistical story. They finished with 67% of the ball, completing 614 passes at a 93% accuracy rate compared to Paysandu's 279 passes at 82%. This territorial advantage translated into the most dangerous shooting positions: Bahia had 13 shots from inside the box against Paysandu's six, despite the home side playing in their own stadium. The visitors' approach play consistently found space in dangerous areas, as shown by the 13 inside-box attempts, while Paysandu were forced into nine shots from outside the box, reflecting a lack of penetration. Bahia's 17 total shots and six on target far exceeded Paysandu's 15 and two, indicating a clear superiority in chance creation.
The player ratings highlight a disciplined and cohesive Bahia performance, with several individuals earning strong marks. Rezende earned the highest rating of the match at 8.2, reflecting a commanding midfield display that underpinned the visitors' possession dominance. Erick and Iago Borduchi both received 8.0 ratings, suggesting strong contributions from the left side of the pitch, with Borduchi likely influential in both defensive and attacking phases. Gabriel Xavier and Luciano Juba also posted solid 7.7 ratings, indicating a consistent level across the Bahia lineup, with Juba's rating suggesting an effective role in the forward areas. For Paysandu, Matheus Nogueira stood out with a 7.7 rating, but the rest of the home side struggled to match the visitors' intensity, as no other player was among the top-rated performers.
Discipline was a minor factor, with both sides receiving two yellow cards each, reflecting a fairly clean contest with 14 fouls for Paysandu and seven for Bahia. Nicolás Acevedo picked up an early booking for Bahia in the 11th minute, while Erick was cautioned late on in the 87th minute. Paysandu's Patric Calmon and Matheus Vargas were both booked, with Vargas's yellow in the 81st minute indicative of the home side's growing frustration as they chased an equaliser. The foul count disparity, with Paysandu committing twice as many fouls, further illustrates the home side's struggles to contain Bahia's possession game.
The victory gives Bahia the advantage heading into the second leg, as they carry a 1-0 lead back to Salvador. Paysandu face a significant challenge to overturn the deficit away from home, needing to score at least once while preventing Bahia from adding to their tally. The result underscores Bahia's ability to control a knockout tie against a lower-division opponent, with their passing accuracy and shot efficiency proving decisive. Paysandu, meanwhile, will need to improve their conversion rate from 13% of shots on target if they are to progress, while also finding a way to disrupt Bahia's passing rhythm, which remains the visitors' primary weapon in this tie.
