Criciuma edged past Atletico Goianiense 1-0 in the Serie B regular season's 36th round at Estádio Heriberto Hülse, a result that the Lemeister model had shaded as a close call, favouring the home side with a 37 per cent win probability. The final outcome was decided by a single moment of quality, but the underlying data paints a clear picture of a match where Criciuma dominated territorially and created far more than their opponents, whose failure to register a single shot on target proved decisive.
The deadlock was broken in the 83rd minute. Jhonata Robert found the net for Criciuma, with Fellipe Mateus providing the assist on a normal goal. It was the only goal of the contest, but it was a reward for persistent pressure. Criciuma had attempted 21 total shots to Atletico Goianiense's 10, and their 7 shots on goal forced the away goalkeeper into 6 saves, while the home goalkeeper faced no work at all, facing zero efforts on target. That disparity in shot quality was the clearest indicator of control, with Criciuma generating 14 shots from inside the box against only 5 from the visitors.
The statistical story is one of control rather than complete dominance. Criciuma held 52 per cent possession, a modest advantage, and their passing numbers were nearly identical to their opponents: 325 total passes at 77 per cent accuracy against 319 passes at 78 per cent. The real difference came in the attacking third. Criciuma earned 10 corner kicks, more than three times the visitors' total of 3, and their 7 shots from outside the box were also double Atletico Goianiense's attempts from distance. Despite this pressure, the match remained goalless for long periods, as the away goalkeeper made six saves to keep his side level until the late breakthrough. Offsides were split 1-2 in favor of Criciuma, while fouls were level at 14 apiece, indicating a competitive midfield battle even as the home side dictated the final third.
Discipline favoured Criciuma, who collected no yellow cards, while Atletico Goianiense had two: Robert Santos in the 48th minute and Ariel Gomes in the 54th. The away side’s defence was under consistent pressure, and their goalkeeper was the standout performer by match rating, earning a 7.9 for his busy afternoon. For Criciuma, Jhonata Robert was the highest-graded player on the field with an 8.2, reflecting his decisive contribution and his team's overall offensive output. Léo Alaba followed with a 7.7, the second-highest mark among outfield players, with Luciano Castan, Jonathan, and Fellipe Mateus all receiving ratings above 7.3 for their work in a controlled home display. The defensive unit, anchored by a goalkeeper who faced no shots on target, maintained a clean sheet without individual standout ratings, a sign of collective organization.
The result places further pressure on Atletico Goianiense, who now have only two matches remaining to secure a positive end to their campaign. With zero shots on target and a single goal conceded despite significant defensive effort, their attacking output remains a concern. Criciuma, by contrast, will take encouragement from a performance that generated consistent chances and a clean sheet, even if the final margin was narrow. The Lemeister model’s pre-match projection of a 1-0 home win was precisely realised, though the expected balance suggested a tighter affair than the shot and corner counts ultimately indicated. At 36 rounds deep in Serie B, this result consolidates Criciuma's position in the mid-table, while Atletico Goianiense will need to improve their attacking threat to avoid slipping further in the final weeks of the season.
