Where the market is wrong on North Macedonia U21 v Montenegro U21
North Macedonia U21 meet Montenegro U21 in the UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification group stage - 21 at Stadion Petar Milosevski, Bitola.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1408, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 30% against 35%. Attacking output favors Montenegro U21 on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.8 per match.
North Macedonia U21 arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 2 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Montenegro U21, L 1-5 v Morocco U20, L 0-3 @ Türkiye U20, D 0-0 @ Tunisia U21.
Montenegro U21 are patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 5 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ North Macedonia U21, D 1-1 v Cyprus U21, L 0-1 v Poland U21, D 2-2 @ Sweden U21.
North Macedonia U21 hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 with 1 drawn across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: North Macedonia U21 1-1 Montenegro U21.
The market prices NOR at 33% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output