São Bernardo v Novorizontino: the model read
São Bernardo meet Novorizontino in the Paulista - A1 regular season - 7 at Estádio Primeiro de Maio, São Bernardo do Campo, São Paulo. The model makes Novorizontino the most likely outcome at 34%, with the full read 34% SÃO, 32% draw, 34% NOV.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 55%. Attacking output favors Novorizontino on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 41%, over 2.5 goals around 34%. Draw no bet leans Novorizontino at 50%; double chance reads São Bernardo or draw 66%, Novorizontino or draw 66%.
São Bernardo arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 4 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Avai, D 2-2 v Cuiaba, L 1-2 @ Vila Nova, L 0-1 @ Criciuma.
Novorizontino are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 6 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Criciuma, L 0-1 @ Fortaleza EC, L 1-2 @ Operario-PR, W 3-0 v Atletico Goianiense.
Novorizontino hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 with 2 drawn across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: São Bernardo 1-1 Novorizontino.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
