Tupynambás v Contagem: the model read
Tupynambás meet Contagem in the Mineiro - 3 quarter-finals at Estádio Municipal Radialista Mário Helênio, Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais. The model makes Contagem the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 32% TUP, 33% draw, 36% CON.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1581, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Contagem, 65% against 50%. Attacking output favors Tupynambás on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.5 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 38%, over 2.5 goals around 30%. Draw no bet leans Contagem at 53%; double chance reads Tupynambás or draw 64%, Contagem or draw 68%.
Tupynambás arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 4 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Uberaba, L 0-1 @ Uberaba, D 1-1 v Contagem, D 0-0 @ Contagem.
Contagem are in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 7 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Tupynambás, D 0-0 v Tupynambás, W 5-0 v Boston City, D 0-0 @ Coimbra.
Their last 2 meetings are tight — 2 drawn. Most recently they met in 2024: Tupynambás 1-1 Contagem.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
