Guarda v Régua: the model read
Guarda meet Régua in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B group b - 26 at Estádio Municipal da Guarda, Guarda. The model makes Guarda the most likely outcome at 43%, with the full read 43% GUA, 34% draw, 23% RÉG.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Guarda, 48% against 15%. Attacking output favors Guarda on expected goals, 0.9 to 0.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 20%, over 2.5 goals around 20%. Draw no bet leans Guarda at 65%; double chance reads Guarda or draw 77%, Régua or draw 57%.
Guarda arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts), 3 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Régua, L 2-6 @ Leça, L 0-1 v Beira-Mar, L 0-1 @ Machico.
Régua are out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts), 2 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Guarda, L 0-3 v Salgueiros, L 1-2 @ União Lamas, L 0-1 v Gondomar.
Régua hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Guarda 1-1 Régua.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
