De Graafschap won the match 2-0 against Roda at Stadion De Vijverberg, a result that the data shows was driven by overwhelming territorial and attacking dominance. The home side recorded 65 per cent possession, fired 21 total shots to Roda’s five and generated an expected-goals tally that far exceeded a single-goal margin, though no specific xG number is provided. The Lemeister model, which had installed Roda as slight favourites with a 40 per cent win probability against De Graafschap’s 32 per cent, was confounded by the one-sided nature of the contest.
R. Niemeijer broke the deadlock in the 25th minute with a normal goal, unassisted, to give De Graafschap the lead. The goal was the reward for sustained early pressure, with the home side already having forced several openings before the breakthrough. De Graafschap doubled their advantage in the 64th minute when J. Cooper-Love scored, assisted by A. van der Heide, effectively sealing the points with over half an hour remaining. Roda’s only shot on target came late, but the visiting goalkeeper was forced into five saves across the match, underlining the one-way traffic.
The statistical story is one of complete control from the home side. De Graafschap dominated possession with 65 per cent and completed 464 of 540 passes at an 86 per cent accuracy rate, while Roda managed only 225 accurate passes from 303 attempts at 74 per cent accuracy. The shot count was similarly lopsided: De Graafschap had 17 shots from inside the box and 7 on target, compared to Roda’s 2 inside-box attempts and solitary effort on goal. The corner-kick count of 7-1 also reflected the home side’s sustained pressure.
Individual performances among the named players were concentrated in the De Graafschap ranks. Levi Schoppema and Jack Cooper-Love both earned ratings of 8.2, the joint-highest on the pitch. Schoppema’s rating suggests a commanding influence from midfield or defence, while Cooper-Love’s goal made him the attacking standout. Jeffrey Fortes (7.5) and Maas Willemsen (7.5) also contributed strongly, with Fortes having been booked in the 12th minute for a yellow card. Anass Najah rounded out the high-rated home performers with a 7.5. For Roda, Tim Kother was the only player to break the 7.0 threshold with a 7.9 rating, indicating a solid individual display in a losing cause.
Discipline was relatively even, with one yellow card for each side. Jeffrey Fortes’ booking came early for De Graafschap, while Roda’s Wesley Spieringhs was cautioned in the 42nd minute. The home side committed 10 fouls to Roda’s 11, and Roda were caught offside five times to De Graafschap’s three, suggesting a defensive line that was pushing high without success.
The result moves De Graafschap to 43 points from 33 matches in the Eerste Divisie, keeping them in the mid-table hunt for a potential playoff spot. Roda, who began the round as the Lemeister model’s marginal favourites, remain on 47 points and will view this as a missed opportunity to strengthen their own promotion credentials, given the statistical disparity. The data suggests the scoreline flattered Roda, with De Graafschap’s dominance in every meaningful metric pointing to a thoroughly deserved victory.
