Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven shared the points in a 2-2 draw at Stadion De Vliert, a result that the Lemeister model had narrowly favoured the visitors to win. The data shows a match of two distinct phases: Den Bosch carved open a high volume of chances but failed to make them count, while FC Eindhoven proved ruthlessly efficient with far fewer opportunities.
Den Bosch opened the scoring five minutes before half-time. Danzell Gravenberch found the net from a Normal Goal in the 40th minute, with Nick de Groot providing the assist. The hosts had already been dominant to that point, and this goal was a fair reflection of their territorial superiority. They finished the first half having generated 19 total shots across the match compared to Eindhoven's eight, and their eight shots on target dwarfed the visitors' three.
FC Eindhoven needed just 46 seconds of the second half to level. D. Dorenbosch scored a Normal Goal in the 46th minute, assisted by Boris van Schuppen. It was a swift sucker punch that changed the complexion of the contest. Den Bosch responded well, and their pressure told again in the 67th minute when Stan Henderikx converted a Normal Goal, with M. Laros credited with the assist. At 2-1, the home side appeared to have regained control, particularly given their 12 shots from inside the box to Eindhoven's seven.
However, the visitors had the final word. With the match deep into stoppage time, Boris van Schuppen scored a Normal Goal in the 91st minute, assisted by T. Simons, to snatch a share of the spoils. It was a moment of high drama that punished Den Bosch for their wastefulness. The home side had 10 corner kicks to Eindhoven's two, completed 81% of their 418 passes, and accumulated an expected goals figure that their shot volume suggested should have been higher. Yet they were met by a goalkeeper who made seven saves, while their own keeper was called into action only once.
The individual ratings highlight the key contributors. Boris van Schuppen earned the highest mark of 8.5, reflecting his goal and assist in a highly impactful attacking display. For Den Bosch, both Nick de Groot and Danzell Gravenberch received 7.7 ratings, while Stan Henderikx was rated 7.3. The discipline statistics tell a stark story: Den Bosch collected four yellow cards, with Hicham Acheffay, Teun van Grunsven, Rein van Hedel, and Denzel Kuijpers all booked, while FC Eindhoven finished without a single caution.
The Lemeister model had projected a 2-1 away win for FC Eindhoven, who were given a 36% chance of victory against a 35% chance for Den Bosch and a 29% chance of a draw. The actual 2-2 result therefore falls into the drawn outcome that the model considered least likely, though the visitors' late equaliser meant the most probable winner still avoided defeat. In the context of the Eerste Divisie regular season, both teams will view this as an opportunity missed: Den Bosch for failing to close out a game they dominated statistically, and FC Eindhoven for needing a stoppage-time goal to salvage a point after being outshot by a margin of more than two to one.
