Universidad Catolica secured a 2-1 victory over Macara at the Estadio Bellavista de Ambato, a result that the data shows was built on superior efficiency in front of goal. Despite Macara controlling 57 per cent of possession and completing 88 per cent of their passes, it was the visitors who took their chances when it mattered, registering five shots on target from 13 attempts compared to Macara's three from nine. The Lemeister model had projected a narrow home win by a 34 per cent probability, making the away victory a slight deviation from its pre-match read.
The opening goal arrived two minutes before half-time. Universidad Catolica's G. Anangonó scored from an assist by I. Díaz, putting the visitors ahead with a normal goal in the 43rd minute. That strike made the most of a period in which the away side had already been testing the Macara defence, with nine of their 13 total shots coming from inside the box across the match. The timing was significant, as it gave the visitors a lead to protect through the interval, and they did so despite having conceded the majority of territory and the ball to the home side in the first half.
The visitors struck again immediately after the restart. B. Palacios scored in the 46th minute, assisted by L. Nieto, doubling Universidad Catolica's advantage just seconds into the second half. That quick goal shifted the dynamic decisively, forcing Macara into a more urgent pursuit of goals. Macara's response was measured but effective. Víctor Ávila pulled one back in the 59th minute, assisted by D. López, a normal goal that gave the home side a route back into the contest. However, they could not find an equaliser despite controlling the ball for long stretches.
Macara's dominance in possession did not translate into a sustained period of pressure to find an equaliser. They managed only three shots on target from nine attempts, with five shots inside the box and four from outside, indicating a lack of penetration despite their territorial advantage. Their passing accuracy of 88 per cent from 421 passes was impressive but not decisive in breaking down a disciplined Universidad Catolica defence. The home side committed 11 fouls and picked up two yellow cards, those going to Joseph Espinoza in the 35th minute and Leonel Álvarez in the 74th minute, while Universidad Catolica's Gustavo Vallecilla was also booked in the 18th minute. The away side's discipline in the defensive phase kept Macara at arm's length.
The standout individual performances were split between the sides. B. Palacios, the goalscorer, earned a match rating of 7.9, the joint-highest alongside Macara's Víctor Ávila, who also scored and was the home side's most influential player. D. López, who provided the assist for Ávila, recorded a 7.3, the same rating as G. Anangonó and L. Nieto, underlining the collective attacking contribution for the winners. Leonel Álvarez, the home midfielder, registered a 7.2 rating for his work in the centre of the pitch. The ratings reflect that both teams had match-winners, but Universidad Catolica's collective output proved more decisive.
The result is significant in the Liga Pro second round. Universidad Catolica take three valuable points from a fixture in which they were the underdog per the model, while Macara will rue not turning their possession advantage into a more threatening attacking output. The victory moves the visitors into a stronger position in the standings, while the home side must address their failure to convert control into goals in the remaining matches of the round. Macara's expected goals, inferred from their shot count and low number of shots on target, suggest they lacked the cutting edge to punish a side that was clinical when it mattered.
