SUD America v Penarol: the model read
SUD America meet Penarol in the Copa Uruguay round of 32 at Estadio Parque Artigas, Paysandú. The model makes Penarol the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 28% SUD, 33% draw, 39% PEN.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Penarol, 50% against 35%. Attacking output favors Penarol on expected goals, 1.2 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 33%, over 2.5 goals around 28%. Draw no bet leans Penarol at 58%; double chance reads SUD America or draw 61%, Penarol or draw 72%.
SUD America arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 4 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Atenas, L 1-4 @ La Luz, L 1-2 v Uruguay Montevideo, L 0-2 @ Rentistas.
Penarol are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 5 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Boston River, D 1-1 @ Racing Montevideo, W 1-0 @ Cerro, L 0-1 v Central Espanol.
Penarol hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 1 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2023: SUD America 0-3 Penarol.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
