Nepal v Pakistan: the model read
Nepal meet Pakistan in the SAFF Championship group stage - 3 at Sree Kanteerava Stadium, Bangalore. The model makes the draw the most likely outcome at 34%, with the full read 32% NEP, 34% draw, 34% PAK.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Pakistan, 30% against 21%. Attacking output favors Pakistan on expected goals, 0.6 to 0.5 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 30%, over 2.5 goals around 21%. Draw no bet leans Pakistan at 51%; double chance reads Nepal or draw 66%, Pakistan or draw 68%.
Nepal arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 3 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Laos, L 0-1 v Malaysia, D 2-2 @ Bangladesh, L 0-1 v Vietnam.
Pakistan are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 8 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Afghanistan, W 2-0 @ Afghanistan, W 3-0 @ Maldives, D 0-0 v Bangladesh U23.
Nepal hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 with 1 drawn across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2023: Nepal 1-0 Pakistan.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
