Atletico Paranaense overturned a two-goal deficit to defeat Botafogo 3-2 in the Copa do Brasil Round of 16 at the Arena da Baixada. The turnaround was dictated by a stark disparity in attacking volume after the interval. The home side finished with 23 total shots to Botafogo's six, and their 12 shots from inside the box tripled the visitors' four. The expected goals model, while not a direct stat here, reflected a contest where Atletico Paranaense's second-half pressure overwhelmed a Botafogo side that had been clinical early.
Botafogo struck twice within two minutes to take control before half-time. Tiquinho Soares scored in the 39th minute with a normal goal. Two minutes later, Luis Henrique doubled the advantage with an assist from Tiquinho Soares. At that stage, Botafogo had converted two of four shots on target, an efficiency that masked their limited overall output. The warning signs, however, were already present in the possession numbers, as Atletico Paranaense held 54 per cent of the ball in the first half and completed 386 of their 483 passes at an 80 per cent accuracy rate across the match.
The home side began their comeback in the 56th minute when Vitor Roque scored with an assist from Madson. Six minutes later, Vitor Bueno equalised, with Vitor Roque providing the assist. The momentum had shifted decisively. Atletico Paranaense finished with 12 shots from inside the box compared to Botafogo's four, and 11 shots from outside the box compared to two. The visitors managed only two shots off target and had none blocked, while Atletico Paranaense forced three saves from Botafogo's goalkeeper. The home side's goalkeeper needed to make only two saves. The winner arrived in the 82nd minute when Fernandinho scored with an assist from Vitor Bueno.
The rating data highlights the key contributors to the turnaround. Vitor Bueno earned the highest mark at 8.9, having scored and assisted. Vitor Roque also recorded a goal and an assist, receiving 8.2. Botafogo's Tiquinho Soares, who scored and assisted, was rated 8.2. Fernandinho, despite picking up an early yellow card in the 27th minute, scored the winner and received 7.7. Marlon Freitas earned 7.5 for Botafogo, while Madson was rated 7.3 for the home side. Botafogo's Gabriel Pires and Victor Cuesta also received yellow cards, in the 42nd and 81st minutes respectively, as the visitors' discipline frayed under pressure.
The Lemeister model had favoured Botafogo before the match, giving them a 39 per cent win probability compared to Atletico Paranaense's 30 per cent. The result represents a significant swing in the tie. Atletico Paranaense hold a one-goal advantage and the momentum of a stirring second-half performance. Botafogo, who made only three substitutions to Atletico Paranaense's five, will need to overturn the deficit on home soil in the second leg to keep their Copa do Brasil hopes alive. The data suggests that unless Botafogo can increase their attacking output significantly, they face a difficult task against a side that has already shown its ability to dominate the shot count and possession.
