Uzbekistan v Colombia

Uzbekistan meet Colombia in the FIFA World Cup 2026 group k at Estadio Banorte, Mexico City. The model makes Colombia the most likely outcome at 44%, with the full read 26% UZB, 30% draw, 44% COL.

Colombia rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1920 to 1750. Recent form leans Colombia, 70% against 58%. Attacking output favors Colombia on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.1 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Uzbekistan 0-1 Colombia, from expected goals of 0.8 to 1.8.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 46%, over 2.5 goals around 49%. Draw no bet leans Colombia at 62%; double chance reads Uzbekistan or draw 56%, Colombia or draw 74%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.