Uruguay v Spain

Uruguay meet Spain in the FIFA World Cup 2026 group h at Estadio Akron, Zapopan. The model makes Spain the most likely outcome at 42%, with the full read 28% URU, 30% draw, 42% ESP.

Spain rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 2080 to 1920. Recent form leans Spain, 80% against 68%. Attacking output favors Spain on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.6 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Uruguay 0-1 Spain, from expected goals of 1.0 to 1.8.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 51%, over 2.5 goals around 51%. Draw no bet leans Spain at 59%; double chance reads Uruguay or draw 58%, Spain or draw 72%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.