Türkiye v United States

Türkiye meet United States in the FIFA World Cup 2026 group d at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood. The model makes United States the most likely outcome at 38%, with the full read 32% TUR, 30% draw, 38% USA.

The baseline ratings are close, 1850 to 1870, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 66% against 68%. Attacking output favors United States on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.5 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Türkiye 1-2 United States, from expected goals of 1.3 to 1.6.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 58%, over 2.5 goals around 56%. Draw no bet leans United States at 54%; double chance reads Türkiye or draw 62%, United States or draw 68%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.