South Africa v Canada

South Africa meet Canada in the FIFA World Cup 2026 round of 32 at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood. The model makes Canada the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 32% RSA, 31% draw, 37% CAN.

The baseline ratings are close, 1770 to 1840, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 60% against 64%. Attacking output favors Canada on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.2 per match.

Model score projection: most likely South Africa 0-1 Canada, from expected goals of 1.1 to 1.4.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 50%, over 2.5 goals around 45%. Draw no bet leans Canada at 54%; double chance reads South Africa or draw 63%, Canada or draw 68%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.