Saudi Arabia v Uruguay

Saudi Arabia meet Uruguay in the FIFA World Cup 2026 group h at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens. The model makes Uruguay the most likely outcome at 44%, with the full read 26% KSA, 30% draw, 44% URU.

Uruguay rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1920 to 1740. Recent form leans Uruguay, 68% against 56%. Attacking output favors Uruguay on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.1 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Saudi Arabia 0-1 Uruguay, from expected goals of 0.8 to 1.8.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 46%, over 2.5 goals around 49%. Draw no bet leans Uruguay at 62%; double chance reads Saudi Arabia or draw 56%, Uruguay or draw 74%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.