England v Croatia

England meet Croatia in the FIFA World Cup 2026 group l at AT&T Stadium, Arlington. The model makes England the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 40% ENG, 30% draw, 29% CRO.

The baseline ratings are close, 2040 to 1930, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 72% against 66%. Attacking output favors England on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.5 per match.

Model score projection: most likely England 1-0 Croatia, from expected goals of 1.7 to 1.0.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 52%, over 2.5 goals around 51%. Draw no bet leans England at 58%; double chance reads England or draw 71%, Croatia or draw 60%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.