Colombia v Ghana

Colombia meet Ghana in the FIFA World Cup 2026 round of 32 at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City. The model makes Colombia the most likely outcome at 42%, with the full read 42% COL, 30% draw, 28% GHA.

Colombia rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1920 to 1780. Recent form leans Colombia, 70% against 60%. Attacking output favors Colombia on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.2 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Colombia 1-0 Ghana, from expected goals of 1.7 to 0.9.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 48%, over 2.5 goals around 48%. Draw no bet leans Colombia at 60%; double chance reads Colombia or draw 72%, Ghana or draw 58%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.