Matsue City took a decisive 3-0 victory over Suzuka Unlimited at the Matsue Athletic Stadium, a result that aligned closely with the Lemeister model’s forecast of a home win. The model gave the hosts a 41 per cent chance of victory prior to kick-off, projecting a 1-0 scoreline, and the actual margin overshot that prediction but the direction was correct. The data shows a clean sheet and a three-goal margin, suggesting a dominant defensive platform from the home side that prevented any effective response from the visitors.
The match produced three goals, all for Matsue City. The first goal was scored in the 14th minute. The second goal arrived in the 33rd minute, doubling the lead before half-time. The third and final goal came in the 64th minute, sealing the result. Without further data on the creators, any analysis of the goals ends at the fact of their timing: the home side scored early, doubled the lead before the interval, and added a third early in the second half. This sequence effectively removed any chance of a Suzuka comeback.
Possession statistics show that Matsue City controlled the ball with 58 per cent, against 42 per cent for Suzuka Unlimited. The expected goals (xG) data reinforces the story of a comfortable home win: Matsue City recorded an xG of 2.07, while Suzuka Unlimited managed only 0.49. That gap of over 1.5 expected goals is a clear indicator of the quality of chances created. Shot counts tell a similar tale. The home side registered 15 shots in total, with seven on target. The visitors managed only six shots in total, and just two of those were on target. The home team’s attacking efficiency was notable, converting three of their seven shots on target.
Passing data further explains the control Matsue City exerted. They completed 482 passes with an accuracy of 87 per cent. Suzuka Unlimited, by contrast, managed 369 passes at a lower 80 per cent completion rate. The home side also won the corner count 6-2, indicating sustained pressure in the attacking third. Discipline was clean for both sides: no cards were issued, and neither team made any substitutions, suggesting a settled tactical approach throughout the 90 minutes.
Without named players in the data, the standout performers are identified only by their match ratings. The highest-rated player was a Matsue City attacker who earned an 8.4, reflecting his direct contribution to the scoring. A Matsue City midfielder received a 7.9, and a defender was rated at 7.8. These three ratings were the highest in the match. For Suzuka Unlimited, the best-rated player achieved a 6.5, which underlines how thoroughly the visiting side were outplayed.
The result has significant implications in the Japan Football League regular season. For Matsue City, this comprehensive victory strengthens their position in the table, providing a valuable three points and a clean sheet that boosts their goal difference. For Suzuka Unlimited, the defeat leaves them with work to do, having been unable to create meaningful chances or keep the home side out. The Lemeister model had anticipated a home advantage, and the data confirms that Matsue City capitalised on it fully.
