Altos and Atlético Alagoinhas shared the points in a 1-1 draw at Estádio Municipal Felipe Raulino, a result shaped more by discipline than by attacking quality. The home side led through Betinho's 62nd-minute goal but were pegged back by Dionísio's penalty nine minutes later, after Atlético Alagoinhas had been reduced to ten men. The Lemeister model had entered the match with Altos as favourites, giving them a 40 per cent chance of victory and projecting a 1-0 home win. The draw was the second-most likely outcome at 34 per cent, meaning the result fell just outside the model's favoured projection but remained well within its expected range.
The match was goalless at half-time, with the only notable incident being a yellow card for Altos' J. Ferrari in the 35th minute. The breakthrough arrived in the 62nd minute when Betinho scored a normal goal for Altos, unassisted. It was the only goal from open play in the entire contest and represented the home side's single moment of clinical finishing. Despite having the momentum of a home crowd and the numerical advantage that would soon follow, Altos could not double their lead.
The pivotal moment came in the 60th minute when Atlético Alagoinhas' Leandro Sobral received a second yellow card, having been booked in the 50th minute, and was dismissed. This left the visitors with ten men for the final 30 minutes of normal time plus stoppages. Remarkably, rather than retreating, Atlético Alagoinhas equalised within eleven minutes. In the 71st minute, they were awarded a penalty, which Dionísio converted to make it 1-1. The goal was the only penalty of the match and came at a time when the visitors might have been expected to conserve energy.
Altos failed to capitalise on their one-man advantage for the remainder of the match. Discipline became a growing concern for the hosts: Dieyson was booked in the 70th minute, Marconi in the 80th and V. Leandro in the 90th minute. That brought Altos' yellow card total to four, compared to Atlético Alagoinhas' two, though the visitors' two were more costly given Leandro Sobral's sending-off. The lack of any statistical data on possession, shots or expected goals limits the depth of the analysis, but the pattern is clear: Altos could not turn a one-goal lead and a one-man advantage into victory, and they accumulated bookings that may prove costly in future rounds.
With no player ratings provided, it is impossible to identify standout individual performers. Betinho and Dionísio both scored their respective goals, but without further data on shots, passes or defensive contributions, their overall influence cannot be measured. The match appears to have been tight and combative, with neither side able to dominate possession or create a clear statistical advantage. The absence of any shots or expected goals figures suggests a contest low in goalmouth action.
For Altos, this represents a missed opportunity. A home draw against a side that played almost a third of the match with ten men is a disappointing start, especially given the favourable projection from the Lemeister model. A 1-0 lead against a numerically inferior opponent should have been a platform for three points. For Atlético Alagoinhas, securing a point while playing a man down for 30 minutes is a resilient result that could prove valuable in a tight group stage. Both sides will need to sharpen their attacking execution if they are to progress, but the visitors will take greater encouragement from the opening round.
