Where the market is wrong on China PR U23 v Uzbekistan U23
China PR U23 meet Uzbekistan U23 in the Asian Games 3rd place at Toyota Stadium, Toyota.
The baseline ratings are close, 1604 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans China PR U23, 68% against 57%. Attacking output favors Uzbekistan U23 on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.6 per match.
China PR U23 arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 6 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Korea Republic U23, W 3-0 v Thailand U23, D 0-0 v UAE U23, D 0-0 @ Iran U23.
Uzbekistan U23 are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 13 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Japan U23, W 3-0 v Saudi Arabia U23, W 2-0 @ Vietnam U23, W 2-0 @ Kuwait U23.
Uzbekistan U23 hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Uzbekistan U23 0-0 China PR U23.
The market prices CHI at 19% implied. Our number sits apart on China PR U23: a 19.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
