Where the market is wrong on Croatia U19 v Italy U19
Croatia U19 meet Italy U19 in the Friendlies friendly international.
The baseline ratings are close, 1592 to 1638, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 63% against 70%. Attacking output favors Croatia U19 on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.6 per match.
Croatia U19 arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 4 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Italy U19, L 0-3 @ Spain U19, W 3-0 @ Serbia U19, D 0-0 v Italy U19.
Italy U19 are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 3 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Croatia U19, D 0-0 @ Denmark U19, L 0-1 @ Ukraine U19, D 0-0 @ Croatia U19.
Italy U19 hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Croatia U19 0-1 Italy U19.
The market prices CRO at 32% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 5.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
