Where the market is wrong on Philippines v Pakistan
Philippines meet Pakistan in the FIFA Asean Cup division 1 - 2.
Philippines rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1558 to 1400. Recent form leans Philippines, 57% against 30%. Attacking output favors Philippines on expected goals, 1.9 to 0.6 per match.
Philippines arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 5 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Vietnam, L 0-1 @ Malaysia, L 0-1 v Thailand, W 4-1 @ Laos.
Pakistan are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 7 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 0-4 v Thailand, W 2-0 v Afghanistan, W 2-0 @ Afghanistan, W 3-0 @ Maldives.
The market prices PHI at 75% implied. Our number sits apart on Pakistan: a 7.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 58 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
