Where the market is wrong on Fleetwood Town v Arsenal
Fleetwood Town meet Arsenal in the League Cup round of 16 at Highbury Stadium, Fleetwood.
The baseline ratings are close, 1589 to 1707, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Arsenal, 78% against 63%. Attacking output favors Arsenal on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.4 per match.
Fleetwood Town arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 4 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Rochdale, L 0-1 @ Oldham, L 1-3 @ Barnet, W 1-0 v Sheffield Utd.
Arsenal are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 9 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ Brighton, W 4-2 @ Ipswich, W 2-0 @ Sunderland, W 1-0 @ Napoli.
The market prices FLE at 3% implied. Our number sits apart on Fleetwood Town: a 28.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
