Where the market is wrong on Gibraltar v Sao Tome and Principe
Gibraltar meet Sao Tome and Principe in the Friendlies friendly international at Europa Point Stadium, Gibraltar.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Gibraltar, 28% against 15%. Attacking output favors Gibraltar on expected goals, 0.7 to 0.4 per match.
Gibraltar arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 8 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Andorra, D 0-0 v Sao Tome and Principe, W 4-1 v Cayman Islands, W 4-0 v British Virgin Islands.
Sao Tome and Principe are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 1 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Gibraltar, L 0-1 @ Ethiopia, L 0-3 v Ethiopia, W 1-0 v Malawi.
Their last 1 meetings are tight — 1 drawn. Most recently they met in 2026: Gibraltar 0-0 Sao Tome and Principe.
The market prices GIB at 64% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 12.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
