Haiti v Costa Rica

Haiti meet Costa Rica in the CONCACAF Nations League league a - 1 at Sabina Park, Kingston.

The baseline ratings are close, 1477 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 45% against 53%. Attacking output favors Costa Rica on expected goals, 2.3 to 1.6 per match.

Haiti arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts), 6 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 v Trinidad and Tobago, L 2-4 @ Morocco, L 0-3 @ Brazil, L 0-1 v Scotland.

Costa Rica are out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 6 scored and 17 conceded. Recent results: L 3-4 v Curaçao, L 0-3 @ England, L 1-3 @ Colombia, L 0-5 v Iran.

The recent head-to-head is even, 2 apiece with 3 drawn across the last 7 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Haiti 1-0 Costa Rica.

The market prices HAI at 40% implied. Our number sits apart on Costa Rica: a 6.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 68 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.