Where the market is wrong on Sint Maarten v Belize
Sint Maarten meet Belize in the CONCACAF Nations League league b - 4 at FFB Stadium, Belmopan.
The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1523, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 50%. Attacking output favors Belize on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.4 per match.
Sint Maarten arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 6 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Belize, D 0-0 @ Dominica, W 3-2 @ Belize, W 3-2 @ Dominica.
Belize are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 11 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Sint Maarten, L 1-3 @ Guyana, L 2-3 v Sint Maarten, W 6-2 @ St. Kitts and Nevis.
The market prices SIN at 29% implied. Our number sits apart on Sint Maarten: a 3.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
