Where the market is wrong on Welling United v Chertsey Town
Welling United meet Chertsey Town in the FA Trophy final.
The baseline ratings are close, 1604 to 1625, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 63% against 68%. Attacking output favors Chertsey Town on expected goals, 2.3 to 1.8 per match.
Welling United arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 11 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Chertsey Town, L 1-4 @ Dulwich Hamlet, W 2-0 v Cheshunt, W 4-1 v Wingate & Finchley.
Chertsey Town are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 13 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v Poole Town, D 2-2 @ Welling United, D 2-2 @ Chichester City, W 3-2 v Greenwich Borough.
Their last 1 meetings are tight — 1 drawn. Most recently they met in 2026: Welling United 2-2 Chertsey Town.
The market prices WEL at 48% implied. Our number sits apart on Chertsey Town: a 13.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 82 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
