Where the market is wrong on Atenas v Cerrito
Atenas meet Cerrito in the Segunda División 2nd phase - 18.
The baseline ratings are close, 1581 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 60% against 53%. Attacking output favors Atenas on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.2 per match.
Atenas arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 7 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Cerrito, W 3-2 v CA River Plate, D 2-2 v Penarol, L 0-2 @ Paysandu.
Cerrito are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 4 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Atenas, W 2-0 @ Cerro, L 1-2 v Paysandu, L 0-2 v Deportivo Maldonado.
Atenas hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Atenas 0-0 Cerrito.
The market prices ATE at 42% implied. Our number sits apart on Cerrito: a 3.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
