Where the market is wrong on Wanderers v Cerrito
Wanderers meet Cerrito in the Copa Uruguay group stage - 3.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 50%. Attacking output favors Wanderers on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.1 per match.
Wanderers arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 4 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v Cerrito, D 1-1 @ Danubio, D 1-1 v Club Nacional, L 1-4 @ Deportivo Maldonado.
Cerrito are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 7 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v La Luz, W 3-1 @ Wanderers, D 1-1 v CA River Plate, D 0-0 @ Atenas.
The market prices WAN at 44% implied. Our number sits apart on Cerrito: a 10.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 76 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
