South Melbourne v Lions

South Melbourne meet Lions in the Australia Cup semi-finals at Lakeside Stadium, Melbourne.

Lions rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1753 to 1569. Recent form leans Lions, 83% against 57%. Attacking output favors Lions on expected goals, 2.5 to 1.7 per match.

South Melbourne arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 8 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 v Lions, L 1-2 @ Oakleigh Cannons, W 2-1 v Heidelberg United, L 0-1 @ Sunshine Georgies.

Lions are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 12 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ South Melbourne, W 1-0 v Peninsula Power, W 4-1 v Peninsula Power, W 4-0 v North Sunshine Eagles.

South Melbourne hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: South Melbourne 3-1 Lions.

The market prices SOU at 53% implied. Our number sits apart on Lions: a 25.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 84 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.