Danubio v Penarol

Danubio meet Penarol in the Primera División clausura - 5.

Penarol rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1569 to 1400. Recent form leans Penarol, 60% against 33%. Attacking output favors Penarol on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.7 per match.

Danubio arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 3 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Atletico Torque, L 0-1 @ Progreso, W 3-2 v Atenas, D 0-0 v Racing Montevideo.

Penarol are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 8 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Club Nacional, W 1-0 v Atletico Torque, D 0-0 @ Deportivo Maldonado, W 2-1 v Central Espanol.

Penarol hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Penarol 1-1 Danubio.

The market prices DAN at 20% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.