Where the market is wrong on NEC v Lugazi
NEC meet Lugazi in the Premier League regular season - 2 at MTN Omondi Stadium, undefined.
NEC rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1662 to 1400. Recent form leans NEC, 74% against 35%. Attacking output favors NEC on expected goals, 1.2 to 0.6 per match.
NEC arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 7 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 v Lugazi, W 2-0 @ KCCA, L 0-2 @ Calvary, L 1-4 v SC Villa.
Lugazi are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 3 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ NEC, W 2-1 v Kigezi HomeBoyz, L 0-1 v Maroons, D 0-0 @ Express.
NEC hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 1 across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: NEC 3-1 Lugazi.
The market prices NEC at 55% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 6.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output