Where the market is wrong on Gualaceo SC v Independiente del Valle
Gualaceo SC meet Independiente del Valle in the Copa Ecuador quarter-finals at Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar, Cuenca.
Independiente del Valle rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1822 to 1546. Recent form leans Independiente del Valle, 93% against 57%. Attacking output favors Independiente del Valle on expected goals, 2.8 to 1.1 per match.
Gualaceo SC arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 9 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v El Nacional, W 3-0 @ Deportivo Cuenca Juniors, D 0-0 v Atletico FC, L 1-2 @ San Antonio.
Independiente del Valle are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 12 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Universidad Catolica, W 3-1 v Deportes Tolima, W 3-2 @ Leones del Norte, W 1-0 @ Deportes Tolima.
Independiente del Valle hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 0 across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Gualaceo SC 0-6 Independiente del Valle.
The market prices GUA at 74% implied. Our number sits apart on Independiente del Valle: a 35.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 83 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
