Where the market is wrong on Sampaio Corrêa RJ v Nova Iguaçu
Sampaio Corrêa RJ meet Nova Iguaçu in the Copa Rio semi-finals at Estadio Lourival Gomes de Almeida, Saquarema.
The baseline ratings are close, 1454 to 1523, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Nova Iguaçu, 53% against 43%. Attacking output favors Nova Iguaçu on expected goals, 1.0 to 0.8 per match.
Sampaio Corrêa RJ arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 5 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Nova Iguaçu, L 0-2 @ Nova Iguaçu, W 1-0 v São Gonçalo EC RJ, D 0-0 @ São Gonçalo EC RJ.
Nova Iguaçu are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 5 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Sampaio Corrêa RJ, W 2-0 v Sampaio Corrêa RJ, D 0-0 v Olaria, W 1-0 @ Olaria.
Nova Iguaçu hold the recent head-to-head, 7 wins to 2 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Sampaio Corrêa RJ 2-1 Nova Iguaçu.
The market prices SAM at 40% implied. Our number sits apart on Nova Iguaçu: a 5.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 63 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
