Where the market is wrong on Boavista SC v Madureira
Boavista SC meet Madureira in the Copa Rio semi-finals.
The baseline ratings are close, 1443 to 1454, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 40% against 43%. Attacking output favors Boavista SC on expected goals, 1.0 to 1.0 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 42%, over 2.5 goals around 36%. Draw no bet leans Boavista SC at 54%; double chance reads Boavista SC or draw 69%, Madureira or draw 63%.
Boavista SC arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 10 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Madureira, W 3-0 v CFRJ / Maricá, L 0-1 @ CFRJ / Maricá, W 4-0 v CEAC / Araruama.
Madureira are steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Boavista SC, D 1-1 v Portuguesa RJ, W 1-0 @ Portuguesa RJ, D 1-1 v Bonsucesso.
The market prices BOA at 49% implied. Our number sits apart on Madureira: a 10.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
