Lincoln Red Imps FC v Larne

Lincoln Red Imps FC meet Larne in the UEFA Europa Conference League playoff round at Victoria Stadium, Gibraltar.

The baseline ratings are close, 1684 to 1601, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Lincoln Red Imps FC, 75% against 63%. Attacking output favors Lincoln Red Imps FC on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.5 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 47%, over 2.5 goals around 45%. Draw no bet leans Lincoln Red Imps FC at 58%; double chance reads Lincoln Red Imps FC or draw 71%, Larne or draw 60%.

Lincoln Red Imps FC arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 4 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 v St Joseph S Fc, L 0-2 v Larne, L 0-1 @ Omonia Nicosia, D 1-1 v Omonia Nicosia.

Larne are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 3 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Lincoln Red Imps FC, D 0-0 @ Coleraine FC, L 1-2 @ FC Iberia 1999, D 0-0 v FC Iberia 1999.

Larne hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Lincoln Red Imps FC 0-2 Larne.

The market prices LIN at 48% implied. Our number sits apart on Larne: a 4.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.