Where the market is wrong on Nottingham Forest v Leeds
Nottingham Forest meet Leeds in the League Cup round of 64 at City Ground, Nottingham.
The baseline ratings are close, 1569 to 1638, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Leeds, 70% against 57%. Attacking output favors Leeds on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 49%, over 2.5 goals around 47%. Draw no bet leans Leeds at 57%; double chance reads Nottingham Forest or draw 61%, Leeds or draw 70%.
Nottingham Forest arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 4 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v Leeds, L 0-1 v Leeds, W 2-0 v Stade Brestois 29, W 2-1 v Bayer Leverkusen.
Leeds are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 10 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Nottingham Forest, W 1-0 @ Nottingham Forest, W 4-0 v FC Augsburg, D 1-1 @ Manchester United.
Leeds hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 4 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Nottingham Forest 0-2 Leeds.
The market prices NOT at 41% implied. Our number sits apart on Leeds: a 8.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 74 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
