Santos v Palmeiras

Santos meet Palmeiras in the Copa Do Brasil quarter-finals at Vila Belmiro, undefined.

The baseline ratings are close, 1598 to 1627, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 64% against 68%. Attacking output favors Palmeiras on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.8 per match.

Santos arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 5 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Corinthians, L 0-3 @ Palmeiras, D 1-1 v Mirassol, D 0-0 @ Macara.

Palmeiras are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 11 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Mirassol, W 3-0 v Santos, W 4-1 v Vasco DA Gama, W 1-0 @ Cerro Porteno.

Palmeiras hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 3 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Palmeiras 3-0 Santos.

The market prices SAN at 27% implied. Our number sits apart on Santos: a 3.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.