Where the market is wrong on Palmeiras v Santos
Palmeiras meet Santos in the Copa Do Brasil quarter-finals.
The baseline ratings are close, 1627 to 1560, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Palmeiras, 68% against 58%. Attacking output favors Palmeiras on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 58%, over 2.5 goals around 61%. Draw no bet leans Palmeiras at 60%; double chance reads Palmeiras or draw 72%, Santos or draw 57%.
Palmeiras arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 11 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Santos, W 4-1 v Vasco DA Gama, W 1-0 @ Cerro Porteno, L 2-3 @ Fluminense.
Santos are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 6 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ Palmeiras, D 1-1 v Mirassol, D 0-0 @ Macara, W 3-0 @ Vasco DA Gama.
The market prices PAL at 62% implied. Our number sits apart on Santos: a 14.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
