Where the market is wrong on SC Covilha v Mortágua
SC Covilha meet Mortágua in the Taça de Portugal 1/128-finals.
The baseline ratings are close, 1466 to 1569, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Mortágua, 57% against 45%. Attacking output favors Mortágua on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.8 per match.
SC Covilha arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 3 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Mortágua, L 0-3 v Atlético CP, D 0-0 @ Vitória de Sernache, W 2-0 v União Santarém.
Mortágua are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 8 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ SC Covilha, W 3-1 @ Sertanense, W 3-1 v Nazarenos, W 2-1 v Eléctrico.
Their last 1 meetings are tight — 1 drawn. Most recently they met in 2026: SC Covilha 0-0 Mortágua.
The market prices SC at 56% implied. Our number sits apart on Mortágua: a 19.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
