Where the market is wrong on Everton W v Birmingham City W
Everton W meet Birmingham City W in the WSL Cup group stage at Goodison Park, Liverpool.
The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1569, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 57%. Attacking output favors Birmingham City W on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.1 per match.
Everton W arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 4 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Liverpool W, W 2-0 v Birmingham City W, W 1-0 @ West Ham W, W 1-0 v Charlton Athletic W.
Birmingham City W are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 6 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: D 3-3 v Crystal Palace W, L 0-2 @ Everton W, L 0-2 @ Chelsea W, D 2-2 v Brighton W.
Everton W hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Everton W 2-0 Birmingham City W.
The market prices EVE at 47% implied. Our number sits apart on Birmingham City W: a 14.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 82 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
