Where the market is wrong on Alianza v Inca Aruba
Alianza meet Inca Aruba in the Primera Division apertura - 12.
The baseline ratings are close, 1496 to 1420, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Alianza, 50% against 38%. Attacking output favors Alianza on expected goals, 1.2 to 0.8 per match.
Alianza arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 6 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Inca Aruba, D 2-2 v Fuerte San Francisco, W 3-2 v Municipal Limeño, D 0-0 v CD Motagua.
Inca Aruba are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 6 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Alianza, W 2-1 v Fuerte San Francisco, L 1-3 @ Águila, W 1-0 v Atletico Balboa.
The market prices ALI at 64% implied. Our number sits apart on Inca Aruba: a 13.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
