Where the market is wrong on Cray Wanderers v Welling United
Cray Wanderers meet Welling United in the Non League Premier - Isthmian regular season - 6.
The baseline ratings are close, 1577 to 1627, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 61% against 65%. Attacking output favors Welling United on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 75%, over 2.5 goals around 76%. Draw no bet leans Welling United at 52%; double chance reads Cray Wanderers or draw 63%, Welling United or draw 66%.
Cray Wanderers arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Eastbourne Borough, L 1-2 @ Carshalton Athletic, D 0-0 v Cheshunt, D 1-1 @ Wingate & Finchley.
Welling United are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 11 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Ramsgate, W 3-0 @ Dartford, W 4-0 v Stanway Rovers, L 1-4 @ Leatherhead.
The market prices CRA at 35% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output