AEK Athens FC v Aris Thessalonikis

AEK Athens FC meet Aris Thessalonikis in the Super League 1 regular season - 3 at Allwyn Arena, Athens.

The baseline ratings are close, 1650 to 1615, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 73% against 68%. Attacking output favors AEK Athens FC on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.6 per match.

AEK Athens FC arrive in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 11 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Kifisia, W 4-0 v Levski Sofia, W 4-0 v Iraklis 1908, D 0-0 @ Levski Sofia.

Aris Thessalonikis are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 12 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v OFI, W 3-2 @ Kalamata, W 2-0 @ Anagennisi Karditsas, L 2-6 @ Napoli.

AEK Athens FC hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 0 with 5 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Aris Thessalonikis 1-1 AEK Athens FC.

The market prices AEK at 69% implied. Our number sits apart on Aris Thessalonikis: a 17.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.