Maritimo v Estrela: the model read
Maritimo meet Estrela in the Friendlies Clubs club friendlies. The model makes Maritimo the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 37% MAR, 32% draw, 30% EST.
Maritimo rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1577 to 1406. Recent form leans Maritimo, 58% against 35%. Attacking output favors Maritimo on expected goals, 1.2 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 39%, over 2.5 goals around 33%. Draw no bet leans Maritimo at 55%; double chance reads Maritimo or draw 70%, Estrela or draw 63%.
Maritimo arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 6 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Camacha, L 1-5 v Leixoes, W 2-0 v AVS, L 0-1 v Academica.
Estrela are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 7 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Nacional, L 1-2 v Casa Pia, W 2-0 v Naval 1893, D 2-2 @ SC Braga.
The recent head-to-head is even, 1 apiece across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2023: Maritimo 2-1 Estrela.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
